Exposing Endemic Election Fraud: A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)
OPS_admin | May 23, 2009 | Comments 0
The Catch: A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)
In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays did the impossible. He calculated the trajectory of the ball using his built-in computer. It’s all in the MATH.
The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections from 1968 to 2008. Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll vote shares, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.
The True Vote is calculated based on prior election total votes cast less mortality times an estimated voter turnout.
The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well.
Final National Exit Poll vote shares are used for the 1988-2008 period. The only exception is 2004. The vote shares and returning voter mix was radically adjusted to match the official tally. Therefore the 12:22am NEP update shares and weights are used to calculate the True Vote. Preliminary national exit poll vote shares have not been released for the other elections.
Since 1968-1984 National Exit Poll data is unavailable, the returning voter weighting mix and vote shares necessary to match the recorded vote are calculated. Of course, the vote shares will differ from the calculated True Vote since the True Vote cross-tab uses a returning voter mix based on the prior election True Vote.
In order to match the official vote an average 94% turnout of prior election Democrats and 106% of Republicans was required.
The average Republican turnout was 114% in elections in which Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% in the other elections.
The average True Vote discrepancy was 9.6% in elections in which Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.0% in the other elections
via Exposing Endemic Election Fraud: A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008).
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