Strong correlation of Bush approval to national pre-elect and state exit polls
OPS_admin | Jul 27, 2009 | Comments 0
Strong correlation of Bush approval to national pre-elect and state exit polls
2004 State Recorded vote, Exit Poll and Bush Approval (11/17/05)
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his corresponding national pre-election poll average. Kerry led the final pre-election polls (after allocating undecideds) by 51-48%. Bush approval on election day was 48%.
There was also a strong 0.89 correlation between the state unadjusted exit polls and corresponding approval ratings one year after the election. Kerry won the aggregate unadjusted exit poll by 52-47%.
Key points:
1- Best-fit linear regressions show that WPE (the average state exit poll discrepancy) decreased going from strong Kerry to Bush states. The strategy was simple: Bush padded his popular vote in strong Kerry states (CA,NY etc); the electoral vote was padded in the battleground states.
2- Bush statewide poll and vote shares were strongly correlated to approval one year AFTER the election. There is a strong relationship between approval and election polls.
3- Bush exit poll shares were negatively correlated to WPE. The exit poll vote discrepancies were weighted heavily in favor of Bush.
It’s just graphically stating the obvious:
Approval ratings are a powerful indicator of the TRUE VOTE…
National Exit Poll
via Progressive Independent – Viewing topic.
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